Scenario Planning: Warum der Münchner Maschinenbau (WZ C28) seine „Stabilität“ neu verhandeln muss

Introduction:

• Munich’s economy is often seen as resilient. Aerospace, IT, and Insurance dominate.
• Rank 18: Maschinenbau (C28) with ~15,000 SV employees. “Stable” trend according to BA data.
• But “stable” in aggregate data masks severe structural shifts. Energy costs, talent shortage, and the proximity to high-growth tech sectors (IT, Electronics) create a pressure cooker.
• Why Scenario Planning? Because linear forecasting fails when adjacent industries (C30 Aerospace, C26 Electronics, J62 IT) grow at double-digit rates while your own supply chain is globalized and fragile.